[SMM Analysis] SMM Domestic Lithium Carbonate Total Production Hit Another Record High in November 2025!

In November 2025, China's total monthly lithium carbonate production continued to climb, up 3% MoM and 49% YoY. Supported by robust NEV sales, strong seasonal performance in the passenger vehicle market, and active supply and demand in the ESS sector, lithium chemical plants maintained high production enthusiasm.

By raw material, all segments saw some increase.

Spodumene-derived lithium carbonate: total production in November rose 1% MoM. Leading lithium chemical plants continued to operate at high utilization rates, while non-integrated enterprises also maintained high output levels amid improved demand. Combined with additional output from the smooth ramp-up of certain new production lines, spodumene-derived lithium carbonate output remained high, currently accounting for a stable 60% of total production.

Lepidolite-derived lithium carbonate: total production in November increased 6% MoM, mainly benefiting from downstream demand boost and prices staying within a relatively ideal range. Toll processing orders increased significantly, driving overall production higher.

Salt lake-derived lithium carbonate: total production in November grew 5% MoM, primarily due to the smooth ramp-up of new production lines. However, output at some enterprises pulled back to some extent due to seasonal temperature drops.

Scrap-derived lithium carbonate: total production in November rose significantly by 13% MoM, mainly because of sustained favorable market conditions and rising prices for lithium carbonate, which enhanced production enthusiasm among recycling enterprises. Despite the rapid growth, the overall production scale of the scrap-derived segment remains limited.

The current production forecast for December is based on the most optimistic scenario involving the resumption of production at a leading mine in Jiangxi. Its supporting lithium chemical plant will require a certain capacity ramp-up period, which is expected to bring some incremental output, though the magnitude will be limited. Meanwhile, with the gradual commissioning of some new production lines and the boost from downstream demand, China's lithium carbonate production in December is expected to maintain growth, with a projected MoM increase of about 3%.

Demand side, NEV sales in December are expected to drop back slightly from the previous month, while the ESS market continues to see active supply and demand, with the supply tightness persisting. Battery cell and cathode material production schedules are expected to remain high in December, though with a slight MoM decline. Overall, against the backdrop of steadily rising supply and relatively stable demand, lithium carbonate destocking is expected to continue in December, but the pace is likely to slow down compared to November.